The AI Inflation Expectations (AIIE) website delivers monthly AI-generated forecasts for the seasonally adjusted year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the United States, utilizing OpenAI’s Large Language Model, ChatGPT-4.

Jul 12, 2023 · Widespread adoption of AI-powered tools could drive a 7%, or $7 trillion, uplift to global GDP and raise productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period, according to...

May 11, 2024 · We expect to see lower prices where AI provides the biggest boost to productivity. That could have a general effect on the price level, pulling the rate of inflation down for the entire...

Jul 21, 2023 · If rapidly advancing artificial intelligence is as important for industries and jobs as many people think it is, it will have massive implications for economy-wide productivity, growth, incomes, inflation and more. Why it matters: Widespread use of generative AI could create a surge in productivity growth. And for all the disruption it entails ...

Apr 17, 2024 · This paper studies the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on sectoral and aggregate employment, output and inflation in both the short and long run. We construct an index of industry exposure to AI to calibrate a macroeconomic multi-sector model.

We find that AI significantly raises output, consumption and investment in the short and long run. The inflation response depends crucially on households’ and firms’ an-ticipation of the impact of AI. If they do not anticipate higher future productivity, AI adoption is initially disinflationary.

Jun 18, 2024 · Among the 60 percent of businesses that expect to automate in the next 12 months, 54 percent of firms (76 percent of large firms) plan to use AI to complete tasks previously performed by employees. Among their concerns for the next year, U.S. CFOs indicate monetary policy (interest rates), inflation, and challenges in finding and retaining the ...

Nov 29, 2024 · In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) in generating accurate inflation forecasts.

Sep 11, 2023 · Our benchmark results suggest that LLMs generate conditional inflation forecasts with lower mean-squared errors (MSE) than a more traditional source of forecasts — the SPF — for the period of...

Oct 24, 2024 · What are the effects of AI on aggregate output and inflation, as well as on output in different sectors? Outline Construct industry -level measure of exposure to AI (AIIE) at the 2 -digit NAICS level, building on Felten et al (2021) Calibrate …